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I started writing about both parties becoming host bodies for 3rd party candidates. Instead of an essay, it turned into 50 tweets. Here goes
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700181993695289344
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 04:56:10
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Social media is breaking the political 'Overton Window' — the ability of elites to determine the outside edges of acceptable conversation.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700182035407572994
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 04:56:20
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The Overton Window was imagined as a limit on public opinion, but in politics, it's the limit on what politicians will express in public.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700182117599150080
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 04:56:40
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Politically acceptable discourse is limited by supply, not demand. The public is hungry for more than politicians are willing to discuss.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700182441315577858
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 04:57:57
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This is especially important in the U.S., because our two-party system creates ideologically unstable parties *by design.*
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700182556226879489
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 04:58:24
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In order to preserve inherently unstable coalitions, party elites & press had to put some issues into the 'Don't Mention X' category.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700182684849479680
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 04:58:55
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These limits were enforced by party discipline, and mass media whose economics meant political centrism was the best way to make money.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700183099523530753
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:00:34
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This was BC: Before Cable. One or two newspapers per town, three TV stations; all centrist, white, pro-business, respectful of authority.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700183272085549056
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:01:15
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Cable changed things, allowing outsiders to campaign more easily. In '92, Ross Perot, 3rd party candidate, campaigned through infomercials.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700183394529882112
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:01:44
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That year, the GOP's 'Don't Mention X' issue was the weakness of Reaganomics. Party orthodoxy said reducing tax rates would raise revenues.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700183536087670785
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:02:18
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Perot's ads attacked GOP management of the economy head on. He was the first candidate to purchase national attention at market rates.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700183650713796608
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:02:45
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Post-Perot, cable became outside candidates' tool for jailbreaking Don't Mention X: Buchanan on culture war, Nader on consumer protection.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700183735690395648
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:03:06
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After Cable but Before Web lasted only a dozen years. Cable added a new stream of media access. The web added a torrent.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700183809484918788
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:03:23
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What's special about After Web — now — is that politicians talking about "Don't mention X" issues are doing so from *inside* the parties.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700183896676151296
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:03:44
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This started with Howard Dean (the OG) in '03. Poverty was the mother of invention; Dean didn't have enough $ to buy ads, even on cable.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700184039957762048
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:04:18
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But his team had Meetup & blogs and their candidate believed something many voters did too, something actively Not Being Mentioned.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700184372129890304
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:05:37
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In '03, All Serious People (aka DC insiders) agreed the U.S. *had* to invade Iraq. Opposition to the war was not to be a campaign issue.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700184507094212610
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:06:09
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Dean didn't care. In February of 2003, he said "If the war lasts more than a few weeks, the danger of humanitarian disaster is high."
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700184625608466432
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:06:38
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Dean said "Iraq is a divided country, with Sunni, Shia and Kurdish factions that share both bitter rivalries and large quantities of arms."
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700184751345250305
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:07:08
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Dean said "There is a very real danger that war in Iraq will fuel the fires of international terror."
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700184889748918278
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:07:41
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For All Serious People, this was crazy talk. (Dean was, of course, completely correct.) This was also tonic to a passionate set of voters.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700184997957750785
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:08:06
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Mentioning X became Dean's hallmark. Far from marginalizing him, it got him tons of free news coverage. Trump is just biting those rhymes.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700185128018968576
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:08:37
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After webifying Perot's media tactics, Dean pioneered online fundraising. Unfortunately for him, his Get Out The Vote operation didn't.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700185249590824962
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:09:06
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That took Obama. Obama was less of an outsider than Dean (though still regarded as unelectable in '07) but used most of Dean's playbook.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700185346747682820
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:09:30
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Besides charisma, he had two advantages Dean didn't have. First, the anti-war position had gone from principled oppositon to common sense.
//twitter.com/cshirky/status/700185470085410816
— Clay Shirky (@cshirky)Thu, Feb 18 2016 05:09:59